Obligatory Electoral College Maps Are Obligatory

If the antiquated Electoral College is good for one thing, it’s making fun maps.  Here are some Electoral College results you might see tomorrow morning (or late tonight if you’re a political junkie).  You can make your own map at Real Clear Politics.

The first map is my personal prediction.  I used sites like FiveThirtyEightPollster and Real Clear Politics for these predictions.

The above map is favorable to the President, obviously, giving him a fairly decisive victory. So what would a map favorable to Mitt Romney look like?  I think the most likely path to victory for Governor Romney would be the following:

Though there are other routes to 270 for Mitt Romney, the most likely in  my view is that he wins Ohio.  Despite claims from his campaign to the contrary, I just don’t see him winning Pennsylvania, Nevada, or Wisconsin.  Unfortunately for him, people like Nate Silver and others estimate that Obama has over a 90% chance of winning the Buckeye State.

Finally, here’s what I call the “doomsday map.”

Recall from your college or high school American government classes that in the event of an Electoral College tie, the Constitution gives the House of Representatives the power to select the president.  Because Republicans are a lock to maintain control of the House, that means a Romney presidency and, sadly I think, partisan warfare eclipsing the 2000 election.  Side note, I endorse Jonathan Bernstein’s thoughts on this event (namely, this is what the Constitution established as the mechanism for electing a president, so we should accept this outcome as legitimate).  Interestingly, in this scenario the Senate would be responsible for selecting the vice president.  Because Democrats are a lock to maintain control of the Senate, the White House would be occupied by a Romney/Biden ticket.

This entry was posted in Elections, Electoral Institutions, Political Institutions, Voting Behavior. Bookmark the permalink.

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